Using the number of outs you have in a situation, you can quickly calculate your
PERCENTAGE OF WINNING the hand.
Below is the chart that I use to calculate all the odds at the poker table.
At first, this chart looks pretty intimidating. But once you learn to use it you’ll find it to
be quick, easy, and efficient. We’ll go through each segment of the chart… but for now, I
just want you to pay attention to the left side, under the title “Probability”.
The percentage numbers are the probability that you will catch one of your OUTS.
For instance, let’s say you’re on a club flush draw after the flop. One more club will give
you the flush. The number of OUTS you have is nine (since there are thirteen clubs in
the deck and you’re already using four of them).
To figure your percentage, just take a look at the chart and find the corresponding row
and column. The ROW would be the one that says nine outs. The COLUMN would be
“One Card (Turn)”… since you know the flop and have the turn card to come.
So your percentage chance of getting your flush on the TURN CARD is 19.15%. For the
river, it would be 19.57%. This is found by following the same row, but using the next
column called “One Card (River)”.
The final number in this row is 34.97%. This is the percentage chance you have of
making your flush on EITHER the turn or river. As we’ll learn, this number is NOT as
important as you’d think. It’s not used to calculate pot odds.
You might be wondering why the odds for the turn aren’t the same for the river. The
reason is because the percentage is the number of outs divided by the number of
“unknown” cards. After the turn card comes out, there’s one less “unknown” card, which
means the percentage on the river is slightly higher.
You also might be wondering why the turn card column and river card column don’t add
up to equal the turn and river card column. For instance, 19.15% plus 19.57% doesn’t
equal 34.97%. Why is that?
The answer is related to some complicated math. But for the curious, here’s a quick
example that makes it easy to remember why…
Pretend you have a coin. You’re going to flip it twice, and want to know the odds of
making “heads”. For the first flip, your odds are 50%. For the second flip, your odds are
50%. But what are the odds you’ll make it EITHER the first or second time?
If you add 50% plus 50% you’d get 100%, but obviously that’s wrong… since there’s
always the chance of flipping tails twice in a row.
The REAL answer is 75%. This is figured by taking the odds AGAINST making heads for
the first flip (1/2) multiplied by the odds AGAINST making odds on the second flip
(1/2). That number (1/4) is then subtracted from one to give you ¾, or 75%.
Why is it figured that way?
I don’t know and I don’t want to know. Who cares? It has nothing to do with poker, so
let’s get back to the percentage charts so that you can win some more pots.
Let’s do another scenario for calculating outs and percentages.
You get dealt suited connectors:
This gives you two over cards and an open-ended straight draw. You don’t put anyone
on a pocket pair or two pair yet… so what are your odds of having the “winning” hand on
the turn? In other words, what’s the percentage you’ll make one of your “outs” on the
turn?
See if you can figure it out on your own right now.
OK, now for the answer. Step one is to calculate the outs. These are the cards that can
help you:
4 fives + 4 tens + 3 nines + 3 eights = 14 outs
The eights and nines are over cards, which means getting one of them will give you top
pair. Top pair isn’t necessarily a winner, but we’ll treat it like a winner for our purposes
here.
Now it’s time to use the probability charts.
Probability
With thirteen outs, you’ve got a 29.79% chance of making your hand on the turn, a
30.43% for the river, and a total chance of 51.16%.
If you only consider the open-ended straight draw for your outs (and not top pair), you’d
have eight outs. That means you’d have a 17.02% chance on the turn, 17.39% chance on
the river, and a 31.45% chance for both the turn and river taken together.
Get it?
OK, let’s do one more example. Except this time let’s calculate the odds that you’ll LOSE
a hand… based on your “read” of the opponents at the table.
Let’s say you’re dealt pocket Queens:
Let’s say you pick up a read on your two remaining opponents in the hand. You think
one of them has an Ace. You think the other is on a club flush draw.
Using that information, what are the odds your opponents will MAKE their hands (catch
their outs) and beat you?
Well, the flush draw has eight outs (the nine remaining clubs minus the Queen of clubs
in your hand). Using the percentage charts you’ll see that there’s a 31.45% chance that
opponent will make his hand (on either the turn or river). The other opponent needs a
runner-runner situation to stay alive. If another Ace comes out he’ll have trips, but that
will give you a winning full house.
We’ll ignore the runner-runner calculation for now, since it’s relatively insignificant. I’ll
give you the steps to calculating it later.
Ok, so ROUGHLY speaking, you’ve got a 68.55% chance of winning so far. The turn card
comes:
This doesn’t help your opponents, but it actually helps YOU. The reason is because now
the seven of clubs (which gives your opponent the flush) would pair the board and give
you the full house. Since full house beats a flush, your opponent on the club flush draw
has now lost an out. He’s down to seven outs.
Using the charts you’ll see that means your opponent has a 15.22% chance of winning on
the river. That gives you a 84.78% chance of winning.
The river comes out:
Your opponent has the flush so he goes all-in. You call with your full house, Queens full
of sevens, and win a monster pot.
OK, so that’s how you use the odds percentage charts. These charts are very useful for
learning more about probability in poker, and can be used any time you play online
poker.
For “offline” poker, these charts aren’t quite as useful, since you can’t carry them
around. At the end of this report, after you learn how to calculate betting odds and make
pot odds comparisons, I’ll show you the SHORTCUTS for figuring out percentages
WITHOUT these charts.
There’s a simple, easy shortcut you can use to INSTANTLY know the percentages in
your head based on a given number of outs. You’ll love it.
We’ll also talk more about why the column for the turn plus river percentage is rarely
used in calculating pot odds.
And of course, we’ll tie everything together by giving you PRACTICAL applications of all
this knowledge.
But for now, let’s keep working on the “foundation” and go over how to calculate
runner-runner odds…
No comments:
Post a Comment